Political
- State Capacity: The ability to collect taxes, maintain a monopoly on violence (security), and deploy infrastructure effectively.
- Institutional Quality: The presence of the Rule of Law, bureaucratic meritocracy, and protection against the “extractive” capture of state organs.
- Elite Incentives: Whether the ruling class benefits from a “bigger pie” (inclusive) or simply a “bigger slice” of a shrinking pie (extractive).
- Legitimacy: The mechanism of power transition and the degree to which the population accepts the state’s authority (Democratic, Traditional, or Performance-based).
Economic
- Coordination System: Market-led (decentralized), state-steered (developmental), or rentier (resource-extraction).
- Fiscal & Monetary Approach: Management of debt, inflation, and the banking system to provide a stable medium for exchange.
- Property Rights & Contract Enforcement: The legal certainty that allows for long-term investment and the capitalization of assets.
- Technological Frontier: The ability to not just use, but innovate or integrate new technologies (AI, energy, automation) to bypass labor/resource limits.
Social
- Human Capital & Demographics: The health/education of the people plus the age structure (avoiding the “Youth Bulge” of unrest or the “Silver Tsunami” of stagnation).
- Social Cohesion: Levels of interpersonal trust and the strength of a shared national identity over ethnic, religious, or class tribalism.
- Civic Norms & Culture: Informal attitudes toward work, corruption, authority, and collective action that dictate how formal rules are actually followed.
Structural
- Geography & Connectivity: Access to trade routes (ports), climate stability, and internal terrain (mountains vs. plains).
- Endowment & Dutch Disease: Whether natural resources fund development or “poison” the economy by creating easy wealth that kills innovation.
- Historical Path Dependency: Legacies of colonial extraction, ancient statehood, or previous institutional collapses that limit current choices.
- Geopolitics & Security Environment: External threats that force military spending or “Great Power” alliances that provide protective umbrellas.